Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
